Prices for cars in 2019: forecast
Prices for cars in 2019 will increase by 10-15%, suggests a basic forecast of experts. At the same time, pessimists do not rule out a rise in prices of up to 20% in some segments. The main growth factors remain the weakening of the Russian currency and the increase in the utilization fee. Despite the increase in prices, the automotive market will continue to gain momentum after the crisis.
In 2018, sales growth in the automotive market will reach 10%, analysts predict. At the end of last year, this figure was 11.7%, which indicates the successful overcoming of the crisis in this sector. The following factors contribute to the restoration of the domestic auto industry:
- Positive dynamics of demand associated with an increase in real incomes of citizens and improved economic expectations.
- State support. Only within the program of preferential crediting about 50 thousand cars will be sold.
- Price stability, which is maintained by strengthening the ruble and reducing inflation.
- Reducing the cost of credit resources, which leads to an increase in the number of credit transactions.
These factors allowed to overcome the record drop in the domestic auto industry and move to a moderate growth. Optimistic forecasts for the automotive market for 2018-2019. associated with pent-up demand, analysts emphasize. Decrease in sales during the crisis of 2014-2015 led to the aging of the fleet, which in the coming years will be updated at an accelerated pace. At the same time, the existing state programs (“Family car”, “First car”) and cheap loans will ensure an increase in the number of deals in the medium term.
The key factor for the dynamics of car prices remains the exchange rate trend. The strengthening of the dollar will lead to an inevitable increase in the cost of cars in 2019, experts warn.
The expansion of US sanctions in April 2018 led to volatility in the foreign exchange market. The weakening of the Russian currency will lead to an increase in prices by 10-15%, experts say. The first will increase the cost of vehicles with a capacity of more than 200 hp, for which excise taxes will increase significantly.In addition, experts note the following price increase drivers:
- increase recycling collection;
- inflationary expectations.
Currency quotes will be sensitive to changes in geopolitical factors, analysts say. The expansion of sanctions complicates access to international financial markets and leads to additional outflow of speculative capital. In such conditions, experts consider two main scenarios:
- The base forecast, which provides for the weakening of the Russian currency to 65 rubles / dollar. As a result, the increase in car prices will be 10-15%.
- The pessimistic scenario, which involves the strengthening of the dollar to 70 rubles / dollar. This trend will lead to a rise in price of vehicles up to 20%.
At the same time, car market participants will try to smooth out price fluctuations as much as possible. A smooth increase in the cost will keep the positive dynamics of sales. First of all, representatives of the mainstream segment are interested in the minimum price increase. However, a more significant devaluation of the domestic currency will lead to a sharp increase in prices and a subsequent drop in sales.
ROAD President Oleg Moseev expects the resumption of negative sales dynamics if the ruble continues to lose ground. Also, much will depend on the expectations of the population regarding the development of the economic situation. Worsening expectations will lead to a significant drop in demand, Moseev said. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the reduction of state support, which previously provided a significant share of sales.
The fluctuation of currency quotes leads to an increase in the cost of imported cars. In this case, cars that are produced in Russia will receive additional benefits.
Decrease in the share of imports
Representatives of the Ministry of Industry and Trade have noted the negative impact of the devaluation of the ruble on the value of imported cars. At the same time, the competitiveness of cars that are assembled in the territory of the Russian Federation will increase. These models rise in price only by 5-7%, which will make them more attractive to consumers. More than 86% of cars that are sold on the domestic market fall into this category.
Officials emphasize that more than half the cost of cars that are assembled in the Russian Federation has a ruble component.For some companies, this figure exceeds 80%, which allows to minimize the negative effect as a result of the strengthening of the dollar. Experts note a gradual increase in the share of cars that are assembled at Russian factories. This trend will continue in the medium term, which will make the cost of cars less susceptible to fluctuations in currency quotes.
Analysts believe that the future price dynamics of specific market participants will depend on the chosen strategy. The companies focused on the financial result will increase their prices more aggressively. At the same time there will be participants interested in increasing their own market share. These companies will maximize delay value adjustment, despite the possible losses.