The federal budget of Russia for 2017
The situation around the Russian economy still worries many financial experts. Of course, the difficult economic situation in recent years has affected many developed countries, so it cannot be argued that only in our country everything is bad. The government of the Russian Federation is developing daily ways to resolve the crisis, but stabilization is possible only after the world economy rises to its former positions.
In this difficult time, you cannot be completely sure thatRussian budget for 2017will be able to include additional items of expenditure, because the Ministry of Finance is trying to find a way to enrich the treasury, given the current precarious position of the economy around the world.
RF is waiting for a budget deficit
Most recently, the Fitch rating agency published a rating of Russia at the BBB level, and it shows that the negative financial situation in the country will continue in 2017.
According to the data presented, financial and budgetary risks are still extremely relevant, because the Federation’s dependence on the commodity sector is still great.In addition, such factors as geopolitical tensions and low growth potential of financial indicators put pressure on the economy.
However, analysts have concluded that external risks to the country's economy have eased somewhat. This is due to the instability of the economic situation of the country. So in 2015, imports fell by 35% due to the devaluation of the ruble, which in turn led to a surplus of the current account of almost $ 70 billion.
Most likely, a similar situation will persist throughout 2016, which will help to block capital outflows within 40 billion rubles, while the foreign exchange reserves will remain intact even if the price of oil falls even lower.
Serious spending from the reserve
In spite of the fact that external risks will decrease, budget ones, on the contrary, will increase. Experts attribute this rise to oil prices, which, presumably, may decline again. In addition, the upcoming elections do not give a thorough review of all the expenses of the country.
According to the agency’s calculations, in 2017 the budget deficit will be around 3.9% of GDP, which is significantly higher than the government’s plans (3% of GDP). In addition, this budget deficit can be even higher if before the elections, the indexation of pensions and salaries of civil servants is realized.This would not have happened if the state had a medium-term budget system that could regulate all sorts of risks.
To compensate for the budget deficit, officials will have to use the Reserve Fund, which currently stands at $ 50 billion. Only this fund will not be able to fully cover the deficit, but only by 60%, experts say. The remaining expenses are planned to be reimbursed due to the issue of Eurobonds and privatization revenues.
At the same time, analysts do not undertake to guarantee that the issue of bonds or privatization can be fully realized, because the markets are still going through hard times.
Detailed research by the FItch agency confirms the worst fears of Russians - 2017 will be a turning point in the economy of their home state, and perhaps the Reserve Fund will be at the end. Behind this fund, the government will begin to use the funds of the National Wealth Fund, which has $ 49 million of liquid assets.
Reforms are the key to saving the budget
A well-known agency indicated that the potential growth of the economy in 2017 will not reach 2%, which means that management should immediately introduce rescue structural reforms.Due to them, the pace of development of the welfare of the country will increase slightly, and the crisis will begin to slowly retreat. But experts cannot foresee whether officials will resort to the required changes or not ...
Fitch believes that the low quality of management that has developed in Russia leads to a constant outflow of capital.
Despite statements by the rating agency, the government of the Russian Federation is more optimistic. As part of the “direct bridge” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which occurred in early April, journalists heard a statement that the country was in a kind of “gray zone” and was about to be able to find the “bottom” of the crisis.
The authorities are confident that in 2016 there will be a slight decline in the economy, but in 2017 a long-awaited recovery will begin. According to the ruler, the power is unlikely to begin to draw its reserves and will be able to overcome all financial difficulties without any special losses.
Rumors of a three-year budget
As it became known, the Russian government recently prepared a draft law that concerns the federal budget of the country - from 2017 it will again become three years old.The Ministry of Finance should prepare all relevant calculations and documents for the fall. In addition, a draft budget forecast until 2030 is required from ministry officials.
Such innovations are associated with the current crisis, the upcoming elections and the ban on taxes and fees. Some experts believe that this form of budget is the most profitable anti-crisis measures, because the government has only a small fraction of the necessary funding.
Recall that Russia has been using the three-year budget since 2006. Only during the peak of the crisis, namely in 2008 and 2016, the three-year budget was not considered.
As we see, some measures are still being taken, and only time will tell if they can help the state keep afloat.