Experts and officials continue to discuss the question - in what currency is it better to keep money in 2018. The government and the Central Bank emphasize the profitability of savings in rubles, which is associated with a slowdown in inflation. Experts note the instability of the euro and the expected growth of the dollar.
Currency Trends 2018
Next year there will be another change in trends in the foreign exchange market. Experts expect significant exchange rate fluctuations associated with political and economic factors. These trends should be taken into account when choosing a currency to generate savings, analysts recommend.
The US currency will maintain a positive trend, experts say. Macroeconomic indicators of the US economy indicate the expected recovery of economic growth and reduction of unemployment. As a result, the Fed will be able to continue increasing the key rate, which will help strengthen the dollar.
Uncertainty for the dollar remains the future policy of Donald Trump. First of all, the future format of trade relations with China remains in question.The unpredictable policy of the American president is putting pressure on the dollar.
The main problem of the euro remains instability, which will deter investors. The eurozone economy is recovering positively, but significant political risks may lead to a new weakening of the European currency. In addition, the situation in the banking sector remains quite tense.
The optimistic scenario for the euro implies a significant strengthening in relation to other currencies. Successful completion of elections in France and Germany, as well as the settlement of controversial issues related to Brexit, will be the growth drivers for the European currency.
Russian currency will be tied to the trends of the oil market. Increasing oil prices will strengthen the position of the ruble against the dollar and the euro. However, experts do not exclude the reverse scenario, which involves a significant reduction in prices for "black gold".
Among the positive factors, experts note a decrease in the rate of inflation, which significantly increases the profitability of savings in rubles. In addition, the government has developed new tools that will help increase return on investment.
Given these trends, the experts offered their answers to the question "what is the best way to keep savings in 2018".
What currency to keep money in 2018
The head of the CSR, Alexei Kudrin, suggests using a differentiated approach when choosing a currency for savings. The distribution between the ruble, the dollar and the euro should be even, Kudrin said. In addition, "people's" government bonds are an effective tool for investment. In this case, the average annual yield of savings will reach 8-9%.
The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, considers the ruble to be the safest currency in 2018. Inflation rates continue to decline, which saves savings from depreciation. In addition, deposit rates in banks significantly exceed the inflation index. As a result, ruble deposits will bring additional benefits.
GLOBAL FX spokesman Sergei Melnikov underlines the instability of the European currency against the background of a worsening situation in the banking sector. As a result, the future of the European currency remains uncertain. At the same time, the dollar retains significant potential for strengthening.In the near future, the Fed will continue to raise the discount rate, which will positively affect the dynamics of the dollar.
According to experts, the main risk for the ruble remains a potential devaluation. According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, the dollar rate will rise to 70 rubles / dollar next year. As a result, the Russian currency will lose up to 20% of the cost. At the same time, there is a risk of a larger devaluation, if oil prices show a negative trend.
Excess supply in the oil market can derail prices up to $ 40 per barrel, experts warn. In this case, the dollar may return to the line of 75 rubles / dollar, which will affect the real decline in the value of ruble savings.
Officials recommend keeping savings in rubles, which is associated with a slowdown in inflation. As a result, the interest on the bank deposit will offset the potential depreciation of savings.
Experts suggest using a differentiated approach. It should take into account the potential strengthening of the dollar and the instability of the European currency. As a result, the most optimal savings model: dollar - 40%, euro - 30%, ruble - 30%.In addition to bank deposits, you can use the "national" government bonds.