What will be the dollar rate in 2017
The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia predictsan increase in the dollar to the level of 70 rubles in 2017. This means that the Russians will have to tighten their belts even more, cut back on their expenses and try to save on many things.
Such a scenario will begin to unfold in the Russian Federation, taking into account that oil will cost about $ 40 per barrel. If something like this happens, all residents will experience a collapse in income, the dollar will rise to 75 rubles, and the recession will be delayed until the end of 2017 (or even longer). Such a pessimistic macroeconomic forecast was provided by the staff of the Ministry of Economic Development recently, but it has already managed to penetrate the masses.
There is a more favorable scenario, which provides for a slight stabilization of foreign currency, given that the barrel of “black gold” will cost 55-60 dollars. But, as officials say, it is too early to build any final conclusions, because it is hard to understand which of the options presented will “play” - basic or conservative.Although discard the possibility that the pessimistic forecast and will be baseline is not worth it.
If we take into account that the recession in Russia will continue until 2017, then the ruble exchange rate may soar to 78 per $ 1, which means that inflation will accelerate. So in 2016 it is expected that the inflation rate will be equal to 8.8%, and in 2017 - 7%. Slightly lower this figure will be possible only by 2018. Specialists from the ministry are confident that in 2017 there will be a sharp drop in real incomes of the population, as well as a decline in retail sales.
In the case when oil will cost 55-60 dollars per barrel, economists from the ministry are confident that investment activity will resume, because the country has recently accumulated too much liquidity, which at the moment does not risk investing serious money. If prices for “black gold” continue to fall to $ 40 per barrel, then the decline in capital investments will continue until 2018, officials say.
[quote font_style = "italic"] Most analysts are confident that, as much as we would like, but still the real cost of oil will gradually approach the lowest mark, i.e.to 40, which means that it is necessary to calculate budget revenues from just this figure. [/ quote]
As for expenses, they will have to be significantly cut down - in the other case, the state will not be able to cover all the resulting revenues from the reserves, the ministry officials said. People familiar with the document provided by the Ministry of Economic Development are sure that in 2017 the Reserve Fund will be very hard. Under the conservative scenario, additional income falling in 2017 will amount to 953 billion rubles.
Taking into account all previous calculations, in the Reserve Fund at the end of the period under consideration there will be only about 500 billion rubles - this amount is equivalent to a hole that can no longer be covered by reserves.
The crisis will be prolonged
Leading economists are confident that the crisis in Russia is just beginning, and its peak will be just in 2017-2018. The worst thing is that by this time the patience of many citizens may end, even the return of the Crimea and other political actions will not be able to normalize the situation.
Already in the country there is a decline in industrial production. This means that in the future we will only be able to observe a deterioration in economic indicators,because the increase in the value of foreign currency only prevents domestic producers. The problems that have accumulated in a long time in the industry now come first.
“Hoping that the recession, which lasts until 2017, will pass without a trace for our compatriots is useless,” said Igor Nikolaev during a conversation held within the framework of the FBK economic club. In order for the country to begin to gradually emerge from the pit in which it finds itself, it is necessary to get rid of anti-Russian sanctions and carry out the necessary reforms, Nikolayev said.
But even if the government starts introducing structural reforms in the economy on time, the ordinary people will be able to feel the effect of them only after several years. Speaking of sanctions, one can only say one thing: it is possible to exist with sanctions, but it is unlikely that it will work out for the better, the expert is sure.
Earlier, former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that Russia was waiting for “five lean years” and, apparently, he knowingly put forward this assumption.
Oleg Buklemishev (director of the Center for the Study of Economic Policy, Faculty of Economics, Moscow State University) also believes that investment “starvation” is the main cause of the recession.He does not understand at all how the government intends to cope with this situation.
It is absolutely unrealistic to hope that the private sector will suddenly believe in a bright future and rush to invest their savings in the real investment process, Buklemishev said.
The expert is worried about one more thing - officials continue to reassure the people that the crisis in the country is not protracted and that the situation will soon return to normal. Such optimism of officials leads to the fact that the population is ready to endure several years to finally see the long-awaited improvement. But every patience comes to an end sooner or later.